/the-market
The Market
TAM, SAM, SOM — disciplined, not inflated.
The mistake would be sizing Lightbulb against the entire AI market. The better frame is a layered market: AI agents as TAM, North American AI-agent adoption as SAM, and a Canada-led controlled-AI-operations wedge as SOM.
Market sizing
| Metric | Estimate | Method | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | $10.91B | Global AI agents market estimate for 2026 | Medium-high |
| SAM | ~$4.32B | North America share estimate of global AI-agent category | Medium |
| SOM | $1.5M–$4.3M | Directional 3-year obtainable wedge from pilots, implementation, and expansion | Low until validated |
Interpretation
| Layer | Meaning | Strategic use | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | Global AI-agent software demand | Shows category momentum | Too broad for GTM |
| SAM | North American AI-agent opportunity | Supports Canada/US expansion story | Still generic unless tied to controlled operations |
| SOM | Reachable revenue from first wedge | Useful for VC milestones and founder execution plan | Depends on pilots, pricing, conversion, and implementation capacity |
Important caveat
SOM is not a fact. It is an assumption model. It must be validated through pricing, pilot conversion, implementation capacity, sales cycle, and customer willingness to pay.